A few days ago, we looked back at the best trades of the 2023 NHL offseason. With preseason games underway, it’s now safe to say we can look back on the worst deals from the summer. The lack of movement on the trade market limited chances for general managers to put their team in a hole, but there were a few moves that were questionable, to say the least.
Alex Newhook to the Canadiens
The Montreal Canadiens struck gold when they acquired Kirby Dach for the 13th overall pick, which they obtained from the New York Islanders when they dealt Alex Romanov to the Islanders, and the 66th overall pick in the 2022 draft. Dach had a solid first season in Montreal, totaling 38 points in 58 games — a 54-point pace over 82 games.
Looking for a similar type of deal this offseason, the Canadiens acquired Alex Newhook, who finished this past season with 30 points in 82 games, from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for the 31st and 37th overall picks in the 2023 draft.
Newhook’s development had stagnated in Colorado over the last two seasons, with his production falling in 2022-23 compared to the previous season. He wasn’t awful, though, as he posted a goals above replacement (GAR) of 4.1, so perhaps there’s more to his game.
The Canadiens are hoping that’ll be the case again, as they paid a high price to acquire Newhook — first- and second-round picks. Like Dach, he’s a former first-round selection, though Dach went in the top three compared to 16th for Newhook.
Related: 6 Best Trades From NHL During 2023 Offseason
I know what Canadiens fans are thinking. The Dach trade, though pricey, worked out, so it can with Newhook. That’s not wrong, but Newhook was not worth two top-40 selections in a very talented 2023 draft. Even if it works out, they could’ve bought low. And there’s a reason why the Avalanche took a first and second for Newhook, who was a first-round pick just in 2019. It’s because it was an overpayment, even if it wasn’t egregious.
Ryan Johansen to the Avalanche
Even though the Avalanche made out well in acquiring two top-40 selections for Newhook, they didn’t fare well in acquiring Ryan Johansen from the Nashville Predators. Avalanche GM Chris MacFarland only gave up Alex Galchenyuk for Johansen, but that wasn’t the issue. Will Johansen even be an upgrade as a second-line center over J.T. Compher?
Johansen had a 63-point season in 2021-22, including 26 goals, but he shot a career-high 22 percent. He expectedly regressed a season ago and finished with 12 goals and 28 points in 55 games — a 42-point pace over 82 games. For context’s sake, Compher totaled 52 points last season.
It’s not just counting totals that raise red flags around Johansen, either. His microstats profile was one of the worst in the NHL last season. He was one of the worst rush players in the NHL and was awful in transition. His playmaking was okay, but his shooting ability was close to non-existent:
The Avalanche gave up nothing to acquire Johansen, and it helps that the Predators retained 50 percent of his $8 million cap hit for the final two years of his deal. Still, it’s fair to wonder what the Avalanche see in Johansen that the public isn’t seeing. There are plenty of red flags to his game, and he’s not getting younger at 31 years old. Then again, it’s the Avalanche, and they’ll probably make us look silly when Johansen totals 55-plus points this season.
Joel Edmundson to the Capitals
The Washington Capitals had a relatively quiet offseason, but they did make one move of note, acquiring Joel Edmundson from the Canadiens in exchange for a third-round pick in the 2023 draft and a seventh-round pick in the 2024 draft.
Like the Johansen trade, the cost of acquiring Edmundson wasn’t outrageous. Instead, it’s a question of how much will he help the Capitals at this point in his career. He’s struggled with injuries over the last two seasons, which has affected his play.
Edmundson finished the 2021-22 season with a minus-1.9 GAR and saw that number decline further last season to minus-5.7. Even if he’s playing in a third-pair role, I’m not sure he’ll provide positive value to the Capitals lineup. And he could even be a liability. He’s in the final year of his contract at a cap hit of $1.75 million, so there’s no long-term commitment. But the Capitals would’ve likely been better off hanging on to that third-round pick.
Ivan Provorov to the Blue Jackets
This was one of the more surprising trades of the summer. A couple of weeks before the 2023 draft, the Columbus Blue Jackets acquired Ivan Provorov in part of a three-team deal involving the Philadelphia Flyers and Los Angeles Kings.
In doing so, the Blue Jackets gave the Flyers the first-round pick they acquired for sending Vladislav Gavrikov to the Kings at the trade deadline. They also sent a conditional 2024 second-rounder to the Flyers.
Provorov totaled 27 points in 81 games a season ago and needed a change of scenery, but there are also red flags to his game. His microstats profile is halfway decent. He’s solid in transition and defends the forecheck well, though he struggles against the rush. But more importantly, his impact over the last three seasons has been comfortably in the red:
Provorov won’t have to play top-pair minutes in Columbus with a healthy Zach Werenski this season. But that also begs the question as to why GM Jarmo Kekalainen would give up a first and a conditional second for someone who isn’t likely to play top-pair minutes.
The answer to that is likely because teams around the league value Provorov more than they should. He plays tough competition, logs big minutes (23-plus per game), etc. But the truth is that he isn’t as good as his reputation around the league may be. Perhaps leaving the Flyers will do him well, especially since he’ll have a lesser role in Columbus, but it was still an overpay on the Blue Jackets’ part. And it’s far from a guarantee he has a positive impact.
On to the 2023-24 NHL Season
None of these trades were truly terrible, but it’s fair to question how much they’ll help the teams that made them. Newhook has the most upside, given his age and draft pedigree, but it was still an overpay on the Canadiens’ part. As for the rest, time will tell how they age. But they were far from the best trades that occurred this summer.
* * *
Advanced stats from Evolving-Hockey, microstats from Corey Sznajder (via JFresh Hockey)
