2020 NHL Draft: Top 10 Mock Scenarios 8.0 - The Hockey Writers - NHL Entry Draft

In this series, I’ve been running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery on a daily basis and mocking the results for the top 10 leading up to the 2020 NHL draft — or until the actual lottery takes place to determine the official draft order.

There are more than 30 different scenarios within the top-three picks, so this should provide plenty of entertainment for 30-plus days — for at least a month, if not longer, while awaiting the NHL’s plan going forward.

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The debut edition elaborated on all the details for this series and provided analysis for each pick. That analysis will continue for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in the occasional surprise — along with additional insight — but might also shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published daily.

Without further ado, let’s reveal the results from my eighth attempt at the Tankathon simulator, which produced this order for the top 10.

1) Detroit Red Wings

2) Ottawa Senators

3) Ottawa Senators (San Jose)

4) Los Angeles Kings

5) Anaheim Ducks

6) New Jersey Devils

7) Buffalo Sabres

8) Montreal Canadiens

9) Chicago Blackhawks

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona)

Mock 8.0: The Picks

1) Detroit Red Wings — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Detroit wins the lottery for a third time in anticlimactic fashion as the order remains the same as the odds. That could happen, but it took eight days for this status-quo result through the simulator. The Red Wings wouldn’t be complaining in continuing their rebuild around Lafreniere as the new face of that Original Six franchise. Detroit also won the lottery in mock 1.0 and mock 5.0, with more analysis available there but, rest assured, this is the Lafreniere draft and he will be selected first overall regardless of the team.

2) Ottawa Senators — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa takes Byfield with the first of two consecutive picks. Byfield is the best fit for the Senators — for the same reasons mentioned in mock 3.0, when Byfield shockingly fell to fourth, and mock 4.0, when Ottawa hit the jackpot to take both Lafreniere and Byfield at first and second overall. Those were easier decisions than this next one.

3) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa would be torn here — particularly between Drysdale and Lucas Raymond, with Marco Rossi and Tim Stutzle also garnering serious consideration — but the Senators decide on the draft’s top defenceman. Drysdale is going to be a stud, solidifying the right side of Ottawa’s defence with 2019 first-rounder Lassi Thomson and 2018 first-rounder Jacob Bernard-Docker, while the left side is already anchored by 2015 first-rounder Thomas Chabot with 2017 first-rounder Erik Brannstrom slotted for the second pair. The future would be bright for that back end, with Drysdale ensuring the blue line becomes a strength for the Senators. However, he wasn’t the unanimous choice at Ottawa’s draft table as evidenced by mock 5.0 (fourth and fifth) and mock 7.0 (third and fifth) when the Senators twice passed on Drysdale in favour of forwards, though Ottawa also took Drysdale back in mock 2.0 (fourth). Mixed results and mixed emotions.

4) Los Angeles Kings — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

ANALYSIS: Los Angeles is disappointed not to get Drysdale again — having taken him in five of the previous seven scenarios as the most common match thus far — so the Kings swing for the fences on another prospect who is by far the best at his position for this draft class in Askarov. L.A. is left with Cal Petersen as a potential successor to Jonathan Quick after trading Jack Campbell to Toronto, so the Kings reach for Askarov in hopes of shoring up the one position in their league-best prospect pool with any degree of uncertainty. L.A. has reached in this spot before — infamously taking Thomas Hickey in 2007 — but Askarov is a safer bet as the best goaltending prospect to come through the draft since Carey Price went fifth overall in 2005. That fact — and it is a fact, Askarov is the real deal — makes this feel like less of a reach, but the Kings could consider trading down, out of the top five or even the top 10, with the likelihood of still landing Askarov. Keep that in mind, but there are no trades in these scenarios, so Askarov becomes the highest-drafted goaltender since Marc-Andre Fleury went first overall in 2003.

5) Anaheim Ducks — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

ANALYSIS: Anaheim takes Perfetti as the perfect wingman for recently signed Trevor Zegras on their future top line. This is a repeat pick for the Ducks from mock 2.0 (fifth) and mock 5.0 (seventh) — once again debating between Perfetti and Alexander Holtz, who they have also taken three times thus far (mock 1.0, mock 3.0 and mock 4.0). It has become clear that Anaheim is hunting for a sniper, barring a lottery win.

6) New Jersey Devils — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

ANALYSIS: New Jersey takes Rossi for the fifth time — tying Drysdale to Los Angeles for the most common match, with the Devils previously taking Rossi in mock 2.0 (sixth), mock 4.0 (seventh), mock 5.0 (eighth) and mock 6.0 (seventh). The reasoning remains the same, with familiarity at the forefront.

7) Buffalo Sabres — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

ANALYSIS: Buffalo takes Stutzle for the third time with no hesitation here — reminiscent of mock 1.0 (seventh) — since the Sabres would be willing to take him much higher, as was the case in mock 4.0 (third). There is a realistic chance that Stutzle could be second or third on Buffalo’s list, so the Sabres would see this as a steal — and they could be proven right. If Los Angeles is looking to drop down for Askarov, Buffalo could be the team wanting to move up for Stutzle in this scenario — and maybe the mock is better received if those picks are flipped.

8) Montreal Canadiens — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

ANALYSIS: Montreal gets to choose between the two Swedes here, taking the all-around threat Raymond over the pure sniper Holtz, who the Habs previously took in mock 6.0 (ninth) when Raymond was long gone (fourth to Ottawa). This is a new selection for Montreal, with Trevor Timmins seeing a ton of potential in Raymond, who could emerge as a top-five (even top-three) talent from this draft class but may slide due to his limited role as a pro during his draft year. Not to compare Raymond to Elias Pettersson, but he does possess that elite-level upside — with a higher ceiling than Holtz.

9) Chicago Blackhawks — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

ANALYSIS: Chicago is more than content with selecting the leftover Swede in this scenario, taking Holtz for the second time as a repeat pick from mock 2.0 at the same spot. That mock played out quite similar, though Finnish centre Anton Lundell went in the top eight instead of Askarov, allowing Holtz to slip into Chicago’s hands. The Blackhawks aren’t lacking in shooting wingers, but Holtz is the obvious pick as a poor man’s Patrik Laine.

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Jack Quinn (RW, Canada, Ottawa OHL)

ANALYSIS: New Jersey has options here — including Lundell, Noel Gunler and Jake Sanderson as other prospects who have cracked the top 10 in previous scenarios — but the Devils are hell-bent on keeping Rossi and Quinn together while continuing to load up from OHL Ottawa. This mock would give the Devils a half-dozen prospects from that junior program — yes, six — as New Jersey takes Quinn for the fourth time (mock 1.0, mock 4.0 and mock 7.0). Repetitive as that might be, it still seems the most realistic selection for this scenario, but perhaps I’ll broaden my horizons and take more risks going forward.

Recapping Results for Mock 8.0