The Edmonton Oilers had a great offensive season in 2022-23 and a lot is now expected of them this season. In some aspects, certain players and the team can match and even top the performances from last season, but some will fall short. Below is where we’ll dive into some players on the Oilers that you should lower your expectations for in 2023-24.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Some may call him a power-play merchant, but everyone in Edmonton knows the value Ryan Nugent-Hopkins brings to the team. As a longest tenured Oiler and a consistent top-six player who can contribute in every area of the game, he was finally rewarded with a career year. Coming off two down seasons where he scored a combined 27 goals and 85 points in 115 games, he exploded for 37 goals and 104 points in 82 games, was ninth in the league in scoring, and got votes for the Lady Byng and Selke Trophies.
Nugent-Hopkins set new career highs in goals, assists, and points. He topped his goals by nine, assists by 26, and points by 35. It’s unrealistic to think he can do that again, even with a great season on the power play. There’s no reason to think that the Oilers’ power play won’t hit 30 percent again, but the wealth could also be spread out a bit. There’s also no denying that Nugent-Hopkins is a big factor on the top unit for the Oilers as he finished third in the league in power-play points (PPP) with 53.
Although he did that well on the man advantage, the Oilers’ power play was very good the few seasons prior and he only recorded 25, 24, 20, and 23 points. As a player who isn’t the most relied on to score points on the team (not even second) and someone who hasn’t even put up more than 70 points in a season until last, just getting somewhere between 70-80 points is where you should expect him to land.
Evander Kane
Evander Kane‘s mid-season debut and run with the Oilers in 2021-22 was the best of his career. It wasn’t a full season sample, but it made it seem like there was instant chemistry and something to look forward to for his entire contract once he was re-signed. After 22 goals, 39 points, a plus-25, and 14.5 shooting percentage in 43 games to end the 2021-22 regular season before 13 goals and 17 points in 15 playoff games, we all wondered what would happen if he got a full season with the Oilers. Well, we’re still wondering.
Related: Oilers Only Have 2 Teams to Worry About in 2023-24
He suffered a freak injury part-way through last season, and it kept him out for nearly half of the games. When he returned, it took a good amount of time for his wrist to still finish healing and for him to get back up to game speed. He just wasn’t the same scorer that we saw to start his tenure with the Oilers. He will likely play better than last season, where he scored 16 goals and 28 points in 41 games, but the big power forward still won’t get any top unit power-play time to boost his numbers unless there’s an injury to one of the four forwards running the best unit in the league. It is very tough for him to repeat the near point-per-game run he had in 2021-22 with the Oilers, and 60-65 points is where I expect to find him at the end of the season if he plays 82 games.
Connor Brown
Many are expecting Connor Brown to come in and be the saviour of the top-six in Edmonton. What I mean by that is that it has been a rotating door of players to fill the final spot for a number of years, last featuring Jesse Puljujarvi, Kailer Yamamoto, and Nick Bjugstad. This time there is a history between Brown and Connor McDavid from junior as well as the experience level of Brown. He has performed well in the past in a top-six role on the Ottawa Senators and will have elite players to push him even further this season.
Despite averaging 0.61 points-per-game (50-point pace) for three seasons in Ottawa, he also averaged over 19:30 of ice time per game and got lots of power-play time. His even-strength points might rise, but his ice time will drop and he will get very limited second-unit power-play time like everyone else on the unit in Edmonton.
Brown is also coming off a serious injury that kept him out all but four games last season. He will have to deal with not only getting back up to speed and the expectation for him shouldn’t be that high. The Oilers would definitely like to see someone like Dylan Holloway prove that he deserves top-six time at some time this season, so Brown would be the first moved down. That would be a good thing for the Oilers. I can see Brown finishing somewhere between 45-50 points with the Oilers, but having a strong impact all over the ice.
Lowering expectations for these three Oilers and them landing right where they should doesn’t mean the season was unsuccessful for any of them. This means that they shouldn’t get scrutinized for a career year and have unrealistic expectations put on them causing any added pressure to do more. The Oilers are a strong team and need Nugent-Hopkins, Kane, and Brown playing how we know they can. Anything more is a bonus.
