2020 NHL Draft: Top 10 Mock Scenarios 5.0 - The Hockey Writers - NHL Entry Draft

In this series, I’ve been running the Tankathon simulator for the draft lottery on a daily basis and mocking the results for the top 10 leading up to the 2020 NHL draft — or until the actual lottery takes place to determine the official draft order.

There are more than 30 different scenarios within the top-three picks, so this should provide plenty of entertainment for 30-plus days — for at least a month, if not longer, while awaiting the NHL’s plan going forward.

There's no hockey being played so our Prospect & NHL Draft experts are focusing on what comes next. Check out the latest profiles and features in our 2020 NHL Draft Guide https://t.co/xVdNH9l1TQ #THW #NHL #NHLDraft #2020NHLDraft
— The Hockey Writers (@TheHockeyWriter) March 17, 2020

The debut edition elaborated on all the details for this series and provided analysis for each pick. That analysis will continue for every new selection while linking repetitive picks back to their original mock for reference. I’ll try to keep it as fresh as possible and mix in the occasional surprise — along with additional insight — but might also shorten the analysis at times to ensure these mocks are published daily.

Without further ado, let’s reveal the results from my fifth attempt at the Tankathon simulator, which produced this order for the top 10.

1) Detroit Red Wings

2) Buffalo Sabres

3) Montreal Canadiens

4) Ottawa Senators

5) Ottawa Senators (San Jose)

6) Los Angeles Kings

7) Anaheim Ducks

8) New Jersey Devils

9) Chicago Blackhawks

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona)

Mock 5.0: The Picks

1) Detroit Red Wings — Alexis Lafreniere (LW, Canada, Rimouski QMJHL)

ANALYSIS: Detroit, which owns the best odds based on individual picks, wins the lottery for the second time but the first since mock 1.0. The selection is no surprise in Lafreniere, the consensus top prospect for 2020. However, if any team was to shock the hockey world by taking someone else at first overall, my money would be on Detroit. I have a feeling they fancy Tim Stutzle, but I just can’t comprehend a scenario where the Red Wings take Stutzle over Lafreniere. I can accept Stutzle over anyone else — yes, I can get on board with Stutzle over Quinton Byfield — but not Lafreniere, who has to be No. 1 in my mind. There shouldn’t be any suspense with the first overall pick this year.

2) Buffalo Sabres — Quinton Byfield (LC, Canada, Sudbury OHL)

ANALYSIS: Buffalo is among the lottery winners again — leaping from seventh to second this time after previously moving up to third — and the Sabres are forced to decide between Byfield and Stutzle in this scenario. Like Detroit, Buffalo could be tempted to take Stutzle — the Sabres have already gone with the German twice thus far, when Byfield was off the board at third overall in mock 4.0 and when Stutzle slid to seventh in mock 1.0 — but Byfield is still the bigger name and Jason Botterill can’t afford to swing and miss on Stutzle with his job seemingly at stake. So Byfield it is for the Sabres, with the potential to pair him and 2019 first-rounder Dylan Cozens, who could shift to the wing as a pro and form a dynamic duo with Byfield. Those two should complement each other extremely well, both bringing size and speed with Cozens being more of a shooter and Byfield more of a playmaker. They could prove more potent than Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart for the present Sabres — and Buffalo would be tough to contain with Eichel and Byfield down the middle.

3) Montreal Canadiens — Anton Lundell (LC, Finland, HIFK Liiga)

ANALYSIS: Montreal reaches for another Finn at third overall in Lundell — a similar scenario to 2018 when the Canadiens took Jesperi Kotkaniemi at this spot, which was earlier than expected for him as well. Kotkaniemi has had his ups and downs through two seasons but certainly looks like a quality player for the future. Lundell is similar in a lot of ways — as mentioned when the Canadiens took him at eighth overall in mock 2.0, which was closer to his expected range from the consolidated rankings — so Montreal could be higher on him than most for the same reasons as Kotkaniemi in his draft year. Chances are, if you like one of them, you probably like both of them, but does Montreal have room for both of them on their roster? That will be the question for the Canadiens’ brass — be it here or lower in the order if Lundell is available wherever they are picking. For the record, this would be considered a surprising pick at third overall.

4) Ottawa Senators — Lucas Raymond (RW, Sweden, Frolunda SHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa is the lottery loser again — falling from second and third to fourth and fifth on three occasions now, suffering the same fate in mock 1.0 and mock 3.0, albeit with much better luck in mock 2.0 and mock 4.0. Regardless, the Senators are going to be getting two special talents in the top five to help further their rebuild. Raymond may be one of Ottawa’s targets — be it here or higher — since he comes from the same Swedish program that produced Daniel Alfredsson and Erik Karlsson for the Senators. Their scouts have strong ties to Frolunda and although Raymond didn’t earn much of a role for the pro team during his draft year, he has been an offensive star in the junior ranks. Raymond has a very high ceiling with a skill-set that would be welcomed among Ottawa’s forward prospects. He makes a lot of sense for the Sens, who previously picked him fifth overall in mock 1.0.

5) Ottawa Senators (San Jose) — Alexander Holtz (LW/RW, Sweden, Djurgardens SHL)

ANALYSIS: Ottawa takes Holtz for the first time in this scenario, uniting the Swedish wingers that have dominated their peers on the international stage. Raymond and Holtz have always clicked as linemates when representing their country at several tournaments over the years and that chemistry could continue to flourish with the Senators. Holtz is a sniper — a poor man’s Patrik Laine — but Raymond is quite the finisher in his own right, to go along with his playmaking abilities. Raymond is the more complete player between them — the dual threat — but Holtz’s shot is lethal and superior to any of Ottawa’s forward prospects. If the Senators do lose the lottery, taking the two Swedes wouldn’t be a bad fallback plan.

6) Los Angeles Kings — Jamie Drysdale (RD, Canada, Erie OHL)

ANALYSIS: Los Angeles gets Drysdale yet again — for the fourth time in five scenarios to date, making him the most unanimous selection for a specific team thus far. Lafreniere has gone first overall in all five scenarios but to three different teams — Detroit twice, Ottawa twice and Montreal once. Drysdale has consistently landed with L.A. — taken third in mock 1.0, third in mock 3.0, fifth in mock 4.0 and now sixth, which feels a little low for Drysdale and quite fortunate for the Kings. For those following along with this series, you’ll know by now that Drysdale could be the second coming of Drew Doughty and thus the perfect fit for L.A.

7) Anaheim Ducks — Cole Perfetti (LW/LC, Canada, Saginaw OHL)

ANALYSIS: Anaheim takes Perfetti for a second time, having previously picked him fifth in mock 2.0, while taking Holtz sixth in the other three scenarios. So far, it is looking like one of those two for the Ducks, who have been debating between the best snipers in this draft class. With Holtz unavailable here — having gone fifth to Ottawa — Perfetti becomes the easy choice for Anaheim and should provide good value at seventh overall despite passing on a couple other impressive forwards in Stutzle and Marco Rossi. The Ducks are targeting a shooter to pair with Trevor Zegras, who was last year’s top-10 pick as a slick playmaker. Perfetti fits that bill.

8) New Jersey Devils — Marco Rossi (LC, Austria/Switzerland, Ottawa OHL)

ANALYSIS: New Jersey selects Rossi for a third time and for the same reasons as mock 2.0 (sixth) and mock 4.0 (seventh). Getting him at eighth overall in this scenario, the Devils would be feeling like a lottery winner since Rossi led the entire CHL in scoring during his draft year — averaging more than two points per game (120 points in 56 games). Rossi would be a lock for the top five in most years, but this top 10 is abnormally stacked in 2020. He could become a steal, but so could this next stud.

9) Chicago Blackhawks — Tim Stutzle (LC/LW, Germany, Adler Mannheim DEL)

ANALYSIS: Chicago wouldn’t have to think twice in taking Stutzle as the best player available here. The Blackhawks probably wouldn’t have been thinking of Stutzle as an option — barring a lottery win for a top-three pick — but they would happily halt his fall at ninth overall. Happily being an understatement. Chicago would be ecstatic to get Stutzle, even if they hadn’t really envisioned him in their lineup during the lead up to the draft. Now the Blackhawks could start imagining all the possibilities of slotting another versatile forward capable of playing centre or wing. Stutzle would be another weapon at Jeremy Colliton’s disposal, primed for deployment sooner than later and motivated to unleash his offensive fury on the rest of the league for letting him fall this far. Chicago is certainly a winner in this scenario.

10) New Jersey Devils (via Arizona) — Yaroslav Askarov (G, Russia, SKA-Neva St. Petersburg VHL)

ANALYSIS: New Jersey took Askarov here in mock 2.0 and probably should have taken him more than once by now since he has been available to the Devils at 10th overall in four of the five scenarios — passing on him twice thus far in favour of Jack Quinn and Noel Gunler. In the other exception, Chicago took Askarov ninth in mock 1.0, while he slid out of the top 10 in mock 3.0 and mock 4.0 when New Jersey went with forwards instead. Those decisions could come back to haunt the Devils if Askarov develops into the next Andrei Vasilevskiy as anticipated. Askarov has the potential to be even better as the best goaltending prospect to come through the draft since Carey Price went fifth overall in 2005. Considering their uncertainty in net and not convinced that Mackenzie Blackwood is the long-term solution, the Devils would be wise to select Askarov for a second time in this spot. Martin Brodeur should also endorse this selection — and Askarov is just what the Metro needs, another Russian goalie destined to be a star.

Recapping Results for Mock 5.0