A fully healthy forward group and a new addition upfront? Who would’ve thought the Edmonton Oilers‘ fortunes would turn this much and they would be able to ice such a dangerous group with so many possibilities. That said, after signing Evander Kane to a one-year deal, the team will have 15 forwards when he arrives, even after the first casualty, Kyle Turris, was assigned to the taxi squad.
Depth has been an issue for the team this season, especially recently, but that changed with the return of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from injured reserve, Zack Hyman from the COVID-protocol/injury, and, as I mentioned, Kane. Players who have dressed for the Oilers in recent games have since been moved down the lineup and even out of it. Against the Nashville Predators on Thursday, the lineup looked like this (excluding the fifth line that is either scratched or on the taxi squad):
These lines have worked the past few games, as Edmonton is now on a three-game win streak after breaking the slump. If it’s working, why change them too drastically? Hyman was injected onto the third line on his return so as not to mess up the chemistry of the top-six and slow the roll they’re on.
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Kane adds another forward to the group that the bottom-six didn’t have to compete with before. Derek Ryan, Devin Shore, Tyler Benson, Brendan Perlini, and Colton Sceviour have all been mentioned as candidates who could be sent down to the American Hockey League (AHL) and have to pass through waivers for any other team to claim.
Oilers Most-Likely to Be Demoted
I’ve considered five areas for each player mentioned above who is a candidate to be demoted as a result of the Kane addition: games played to this point, contract length and status, production (offensively and defensively), recent play and opportunity, and plan for the future.
Devin Shore
Shore is the least likely candidate to be demoted. In recent games, he hasn’t been particularly good, but with Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman out of the lineup, he has continued to draw in to kill penalties. The problem is that the penalty kill has been horrible while he’s been one of the top options.
Players returning to the lineup have cut his shorthanded time; he played the sixth-most time on the penalty kill against the Predators. That might have allowed the Oilers to swap him out of the lineup, except Shore played his best game of the season and showed how efficient he can be on the wing in a fourth-line role. That may be the best spot for him, but he still has the ability to line up at centre and be a depth penalty-killing option. The game at least earned him security for a couple more games, even with the addition of Kane (from “Oilers’ Devin Shore: Registers helper in shootout win,” CBS Sports, Jan. 28, 2022).
Shore has played just 21 of the team’s 39 games but has been -because he was? injured for a chunk of games. He’s also only managed two goals and three points on 14 shots. If he starts to shoot more and continues to play as he did in the last game, we should see his production rise, even on the fourth line. There are only two of the five players mentioned above that are signed for next season, and with a better cap hit ($850,000) than Ryan ($1.25 million) – also signed on for next season – Shore is likely to stay with the team and in the lineup.
Derek Ryan
Speaking of Ryan, he has played almost every game this season (35 games) and has underperformed. His game has picked up recently, but since he only plays centre, his role is more limited, especially with Ryan McLeod coming into his own and looking like the future third-line centre. This has forced Ryan even lower down the lineup and barring any injuries, he won’t see time above the fourth line again this season.
The Oilers should consider moving his contract to free up space if and when goalie Mike Smith returns in mid-February and the team has to cut some salary. Not only can his spot be filled by either McLeod or Shore, but he hasn’t shown enough to earn everyday playing time over younger players. The Oilers have been more favourable to veterans, but this Oilers team is young and more youngsters should get a better opportunity.
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Ryan is still a viable penalty-killing option and has been better in the dot, finally settling in. If he can return to the player he was on the Calgary Flames, there would be a lot less to worry about on the fourth line. I don’t believe that will happen, as he is in a reduced role and playing with lesser talent, but we might see a bit more production soon. Unless McLeod gets demoted to the fourth line, I don’t see Shore or Ryan getting scratched much at all.
Colton Sceviour
Now, for the more likely candidates. Sceviour may be the most consistent of the five players, but since he was on a professional tryout and earned a contract, the team feels less attached to him. He is the only unrestricted free agent (UFA) after this season and a veteran, so the Oilers get what they see in him with no potential for him to break out.
In 30 games this season, Sceviour has two goals and five points, not horrible for a permanent fourth-line player. He has managed to outlast Perlini and his early-season demotion and Turris, who has had multiple demotions now. What makes Sceviour a good option to stay in the lineup is his hard forechecking and willingness to throw his body around, which the Oilers are lacking.
it’s unlikely Sceviour returns to the Oilers next season given all the options they have available, and that may be a reason to demote him over someone who might be picked up off waivers. Turris won’t be on the Oilers next season, and we’ve seen how the team isn’t afraid of sending him through waivers.
Brendan Perlini
Perlini has been a completely different player since he got called back up to Edmonton after two games in the AHL. His positivity and outlook on life and hockey are great to have around the locker room, and he doesn’t try to do too much. He has a great shot and used it when he played a few games in the top-nine. He has three goals in his last five games but was scratched last game when Hyman returned.
Perlini doesn’t play centre, so his competition is between Shore and Benson since he’s more comfortable on the left-wing. He can play the right-wing as well, but he’s done better with someone who can pass him the puck. There’s not enough room for him higher up the lineup anymore, but now that Perlini looks like a different player and is a restricted free agent (RFA) after this season, the Oilers might want to see how the rest of the season plays out.
Tyler Benson
Benson has finally been given a decent chance in the NHL after dominating the AHL. His scoring hasn’t transferred well, with one assist in 19 games this season. But we’ve seen him transform his game more recently with more hits and playing harder in the dirty areas. He’s figured out that if he can’t score, he will have to change his game in order to stick around. Benson has become one of the most physical forwards on the team, but since depth scoring has been the main problem and the coaching staff prefers to use veterans, he has played the fewest number games among the five candidates.
One reason Benson has been held out of the lineup while Shore has played is because of Shore’s penalty-killing ability. If Benson could expand his game even more, he could get more playing time.
Benson is also an RFA after this season, and a decision will have to be made whether the Oilers keep him or Perlini around. They seem to be competing with each other to earn a spot in the lineup, and they haven’t both dressed for the same game very often. Benson might also hold the most trade value of any of the players I mentioned, so sending him down would likely mean he would be picked up on waivers by a team willing to give him a chance and a better opportunity.
After all of that, the most likely candidates to be demoted are Sceviour and Perlini due to the term of their deals, the way they were brought into the organization and future plans with the team. Though it is a tough decision and neither of these players really deserves a demotion, making the Oilers better must lead to someone’s misfortune.
