Evander Kane has had a downward progression since joining the Edmonton Oilers in 2021-22, and his play is starting to become a major cause for concern for a team that is struggling to win games – he isn’t contributing offensively and is a liability all over the ice.
Kane was great for the Oilers when they signed him for cheap two seasons ago. While his production was bound to decrease over time, he had never played with the talent that the Oilers possess at any point in his career. Fortunately, he’s only signed through 2025-26, the shortest contract among their secondary scorers.
The Oilers didn’t have to worry about goals last season because their top four forwards (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman) scored enough for the entire team. If you thought that Kane was a part of that stellar group, you are mistaken. He was considered a part of that core two seasons ago, and up until he got injured last season, but not since.
All four of the Oilers’ core produced at over a point-per-game pace last season, and they play in all situations, including the top power-play unit. Kane does not. Even at what I would call the peak of his career in 2021-22, he still wasn’t a point-per-game player in the regular season for the Oilers.
Kane’s Role Decreasing
Kane was not happy with his ice time in the first period of the 3-2 loss to the Winnipeg Jets on Saturday, Oct. 21. During the second intermission, he said, “I didn’t play much in the first period, so I thought I might as well get into a fight and take 7 or 8 minutes in the box.” He has one assist in five games, is a minus-6, and is just not at the same level he was a couple of seasons ago.
Jay Woodcroft and the coaching staff decided it was best to drop Kane down to the third line for Saturday’s game, which the winger wasn’t pleased about, playing with Ryan McLeod and Connor Brown when he made the comments, but he was also invisible for most of the game. His role is to produce at five-on-five alongside McDavid or Draisaitl. If he can’t do that, then he isn’t any different from the top-six winger the Oilers have moved on from in the past. Is he any different from Klim Kostin, who earns $3 million (average annual value) less?
We’ll see if Kane gets his shot to prove he still is a top-six player and gets the promotion to the top power-play unit now that McDavid is out for 1-2 weeks with an injury, but there are other options. Brown isn’t necessarily up to speed, but McLeod appears to be the coaching staff’s favoured choice at the moment. While McDavid sat out a bit of the third period and all of overtime, McLeod was given the extra ice time, not Kane.
However, advanced stats show that Kane hasn’t earned the extra time. Of the 12 Oilers forwards who have played this season, Kane ranks ninth in Corsi for percentage (CF%), 12th in expected goals for percentage (xGF%), 12th in scoring chances for percentage (SCF%), and 12th in high-danger chances for percentage (HDCF%). That is not a great look, and he has to turn it around soon.
What the Future Holds for Kane & the Oilers
One player, in particular, has deserved more ice time than Kane but hasn’t seen it yet, and that’s Dylan Holloway. The young forward, who was drafted 14th overall in the 2020 NHL Entry Draft, has stepped up and looks like he will make a big impact for the team. He is already a strong third-line presence, but he will get top-six minutes soon enough if he continues to play with speed, poise, and physicality.
Warren Foegele has also played in Kane’s spot in the top six due to his great play. Foegele has more points than Kane and has actually been noticeable. He is also a much cheaper option than Kane, so what are the Oilers going to do? The hope is that Kane turns things around and produces at even strength as he has done in the past.
He is under contract for two more after this one at $5.125 million AAV, and the Oilers desperately need the cap space right now, but it would be a rash decision to trade him now – if they even can. While the salary cap is expected to rise next season, $5 million is a lot of money that could be better spent than on Kane.
Related: 9 Oilers Who Won’t Be Traded in 2023-24
Key contracts will end before Kane’s does, so I don’t think he will finish his deal with the organization at this point. Either he turns things around, or the hope is that the Oilers won’t have to use an asset to move him. Edmonton can’t waste any time. They are in their window to win, and Kane isn’t helping like he did in the past.